Looks like Bam & Bin might be wastin' there time in Indiana.....Click on link for the balance of the story......
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pb ... /809040362Will Indiana be a battleground state?
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b]Local analysts say race here could be much closer than usual.SOUTH BEND — Sen. Barack Obama's campaign believes Indiana is a battleground state they could win, but Republicans say it's unlikely.
Local political scientists say Obama could win the state but it will take something big to do it.
Experts have identified anywhere between six and 18 battleground or swing states in the 2008 election, which are determined based on results in prior elections, polling numbers and other statistics.
Indiana has been categorized by most maps as a "reliably" or "leaning" Republican state. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Obama's deputy national campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, told reporters in a conference call Wednesday that the campaign is fighting hard in Indiana, opening campaign offices across the state and running television ads.
If Obama can win all of the states Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, Hildebrand said, that would put Obama within 11 electoral votes of the presidency. Indiana has 11 electoral votes.
"Indiana could be the deciding electoral votes for Obama," he said.
Former Indiana Secretary of State Joe Hogsett said although Indiana has been reliably Republican in past presidential elections, the campaign "firmly believes" Indiana is a winnable state.
Obama started campaigning in the state as early as last February, Hogsett said, and the Illinois senator has done more campaigning in the state than previous Democratic presidential candidates he has seen. Obama has also made more numerous trips to Indiana compared to McCain. Hogsett, who was originally campaigning for Sen. Hillary Clinton, said internal campaign numbers show that many Clinton supporters in Indiana have now committed to Obama. If the Obama campaign didn't think Indiana was competitive, it wouldn't be spending millions of precious campaign dollars on the state, Hildebrand said.
But Jay Kenworthy, spokesman for the Indiana Republican Party, said an Obama win in Indiana "is not a likely scenario." Kenworthy said the state's voting history for Republicans isn't just about party candidates but "voting for conservative Hoosier values that often mesh with the Republican Party."
"We have a candidate (McCain) that really resonates with what Hoosier families want to see in a president," he said.
Sarah Lenti, regional communications director for the McCain campaign, said they feel confident about winning Indiana and that the Obama campaign may be exaggerating their influence. Lenti said she can't definitively comment on where Clinton supporters are turning in Indiana, but that in Michigan, the McCain campaign has many former Clinton supporters volunteering for McCain.
McCain has no campaign offices in Indiana and has been working through the state GOP headquarters to get his message out. Lenti said the efforts in Indiana are going well.
"We're seeing a great response in Indiana," Lenti said. "We feel good about it."
Kenworthy and Lenti said McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has added to the energy and excitement for the GOP ticket both in the state and across the country. Palin is the first woman to join the Republican party's presidential ticket as a vice-presidential candidate.
Kenworthy said there is an opportunity for Palin to draw Clinton supporters because many Clinton supporters have said they wouldn't support Obama. Could it mean that those voters stay home on Election Day? Possibly, he said, but with Palin there's now "another opportunity for people to come out and support a historic vote for women."
Local political science professors say the possibility of a Democratic win in Indiana this November is higher and much closer than in previous elections.
University of Notre Dame political science professor Peri Arnold said state-level polling has shown this election to be tighter than previous years. There are other ways for Obama to reach 270 electoral votes, he said, and the question is whether the resources it would take to carry Indiana are worth it compared to other states.
Arnold said Obama may have a better chance in the swing states of North Carolina or Virginia, and that Obama really needs Ohio and Pennsylvania to win.[/b]
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